The Surprising Advantages of Predicting Your Own Demise
by Robert Hackman
Photograph by Panyawat Auitpol on Unsplash
Guess I opened my eyes in the nick of time
Cause it sure felt like the end of the line
From the song ‘End of the Line’
By the Allman Brothers Band
What could be the point of forecasting your demise? It sounds grim and downright depressing. I can imagine your response, ‘I will save that idea for another time – like never – thank you!’
Yet, if you are willing, you will find it to be one of the wisest things you can do. Please, allow me to explain.
By foreseeing the path to your unwanted end, you stand the best chance of preventing it. I will not try to persuade you of your ability to escape death here.
I do intend to inspire you to take time to uncover all the potential reasons your undertakings will not succeed as a way of preserving their attainment, durability, and repeatability.
A problem-solving strategy, known as a premortem, calls for a team to imagine the failure of a change initiative, program, project and work backward to uncover the origins of its breakdown. I claim the same is true for the durability and relevance of an organization.
You can use premortems to avoid your version of foreseeable colossal blunders such as:
- Quaker Oates’ purchase of Snapple for $1.7 billion, later sold for $300 million
- Kodak’s decision not to commercialize the digital imaging technology the company developed
- AT&T’s failed merger attempt with T-Mobile, costing the company a $4 billion breakup fee
What is a premortem? What makes it so much better than other problem-solving tools? When should it be used?
The Premortem process:
- Present the proposed action plan under or organizational state under consideration
- Announce it has failed or died
- Solicit and assimilate the imagined root causes
- Collect and list potential solutions and remedies
- Revise the planned approach and take corrective action – revisit as appropriate
Developed by Dr. Gary Klein in 2007, a premortem is a problem-solving tool to improve project outcomes. The prospective hindsight of a premortem provides unrivaled benefits from other problem-solving processes, such as a pros and cons list, devil’s advocate, and others. Klein’s research determined the process reveals 30% more vulnerabilities than other problem-solving methods.
A premortem’s perspective shift prevents people from engaging in the damaging behaviors of rationalization, groupthink, and overconfidence.
Having team members place themselves in a future state following the death of their venture unavoidably removes them from the present and its perceived constraints.
Decoupling problems and solutions early in the process removes pressure from participants and gives them no ideas or turf to defend, only pitfalls to identify.
Preordaining the results permits contributors to identify all potential obstacles and risks – not to deter change or abandon pioneering initiatives but to pursue them with eyes wide open to all threats and opportunities. Thus, increasing their chance of realization.
Successfully applying a premortem requires a commitment to creating a high degree of emotional safety, as the participants need to dissent without fear of repercussions.
Premortems need to be iterative processes, revisited as new information is collected, changes are made, and environments shift – especially true for the most critical undertakings or organizational evaluations.
It is essential to tailor your premortems proportionally to correspond with the ramifications of the targeted action plan.
When to use premortems
The premortem tool should be used to evaluate all significant initiatives to head off threats before they become insurmountable. The process will save you money, time, energy, and focus and let you sleep at night.
Examples of when teams and organizations would benefit from using a premortem to vet their decisions include:
- Significant bid proposals
- Strategic acquisitions
- Capital investments
- Culture change initiatives
- Newmarket entry
- Preparing a business for sale
Organizational Assessment
When employing a premortem to evaluate your business, you can avoid a lot of confusion, pressure, and strain by envisioning potential threats, prioritizing them by lethality and likelihood, and determining which risks currently exist in your company. Once identified, you and your team can address them in order of urgency. Thus, extending its potency and longevity.
Premortems can significantly improve decisions such as leaving a high-level role in an established company to strike out on your own, restructure your department, or shift from a command-and-control culture to a collaborative one.
As with most other approaches I write about, the premortem tool works equally well for individuals, groups, and companies.
Worthy considerations:
- How open are my team and I to dissenting views and opinions? What are the implications for my organization’s safety, trust, and openness?
- What decision-making processes do my team and I employ? Could we benefit from refining our approach?
- How committed are my team and I to working ‘on’ the business? What systems keep us from being swept up in the whirlwind of the everyday?
- How defensible is my business? What can my team and I do to make it irresistible?
- Where would I rank myself and my team’s openness to innovative approaches to problem-solving, leadership, and change on a scale of 1-10, 10 being the highest? What keeps it from being higher?
Please reach out to me if you want help reaping the advantages of conducting a premortem for yourself, your team, or your organization. I welcome the conversation.
Robert Hackman is the founder and principal of 4C Consulting and Coaching. He provides executive coaching for leadership impact, growth, and development for individuals, teams, and organizations. Committed to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, he facilitates trusting environments that promote unusually candid conversations. Rob is also passionate about the power of developing Legacy Mindsets and has conducted over 50 Legacy interviews with people to date.
A serious man with a dry sense of humor who loves absurdity can often be found hiking rocky elevations or making music playlists. His mixes, including Pandemic Playlists and Music About Men, among others, can be found on Spotify.
Bravely bring your curiosity to a conversation with Rob, schedule via voice or text @ 484.800.2203, or rhackman@4cconsulting.net.